The former VP, Joe Biden, isn’t doing as well as he thought he’d be in the polls right now. Democratic analysts have been calling it for a while.
Many assumed that Biden would start out strong because he had the name recognition that everyone clung to. With plenty of frontrunners showing off what they can do for the country, Biden’s simply not able to hold onto his first-place spot.
The early-state polls show that Biden is trailing behind. The leads are gone in both New Hampshire and Iowa – they have been lost to Elizabeth Warren.
Voters in South Carolina are showing that they’re not too interested in the politics that Biden has to offer, either.
Biden needs to do well in the early-poll states. Any candidate does, really. With Biden’s poll numbers dropping like a lead weight, it shows that he’s in serious trouble.
Many candidates, especially those who are barely breaking double digits, are hoping that this is a sign that his campaign is collapsing entirely.
Biden can kiss being the frontrunner goodbye. He’s trailing Elizabeth Warren in quite a few states. His huge lead in Florida is diminishing, too.
The former VP has been dropping for a few months now. Many have been questioning his age and stamina. Progressives have also been firing a ton of questions on him – and he is constantly making misstatements or referencing things that happened 20 or 30 years ago, showing that he is completely outdated.
Biden’s been taking an approach that many of the other candidates don’t like. He went into this feeling as though he’s the candidate to beat – and it shows in his arrogance.
Many of his campaign messages claim he’s the “most electable” Democrat who is running. That’s simply not true, especially given that he’s one of the oldest candidates.
It’s not entirely Biden’s fault, however. He can blame the grassroots outreach that Elizabeth Warren has been serving up from the very beginning.
She has been rising in the polls steadily, first overtaking Bernie Sanders and now Biden himself. She has a number of heavy-duty policy proposals and she is the progressives’ sweetheart.
If Joe Biden didn’t think that he had competition, he has one now.
There have been plenty of pollsters identifying that the state-based surveys actually provide a significant amount of useful data.
It shows more about the trajectory of the primary as opposed to the national polls. If people were to look at the national polls alone, they wouldn’t be as much movement – which wouldn’t be as devastating to Biden’s campaign.
What the state polls show is that Warren is steadily winning states back to back – New Hampshire and Iowa. She may end up with South Carolina and Florida, too – especially if Biden isn’t careful. This means that he may not be the electable option.
There are a number of polling institutes and data analyst that feel that Biden has “soft” support. He doesn’t have the support that is locked in as much as some of the other candidates.
Right now, people are voting Biden because they don’t know of another option. However, once they choose Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, or someone else, they are truly locking in their option – and this will show on the primaries as well.
With Donald Trump asking the newly elected president of Ukraine to investigate some old business with regards to the former vice president and his son, the Biden name has been bruised considerably.
He is falling out of favor with the number of people – which is another reason why Warren continues to do well in many of the polls.
The cracks in South Carolina polls also show that Biden could be in serious trouble. This is considered his firewall state.
With it being such a southern state that is heavy in minorities, it could show that there may be problems in some of the other Southern states, including Texas, Georgia, and Florida.
While it’s unlikely that certain votes, including black voters, will turn to Elizabeth Warren, they can turn to Bernie Sanders – and Sanders has been a popular choice alongside Biden amongst black voters around the United States.
Biden is either going to see his numbers continue to drop as investigations occur regarding Biden and his son or Democrats are going to rally around him as impeachment looms closer and closer to reality.
Ultimately, Joe Biden is, at least, getting a wake-up call to show that he does not have the primaries in the bag. He has some heavy-hitting competition, especially in Elizabeth Warren.