In 11 of the 12 states that have recently been polled, voters are moving to the left. They are in Biden’s corner. That’s not great news for President Trump but there is one state that is moving in his direction and it’s an interesting one. It’s the state of Minnesota. Guess what? There are even scenarios where this state could help to decide the next election.
They are a bit far fetched but hear us out. At the moment, Trump and company have a lot to worry about. The Morning Consult numbers are not looking great. According to these polls, Biden is going to be tough to beat. The Rust Belt states that Trump was able to win the last time around are now polling in favor of Senile Joe.
— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) July 28, 2020
If Biden wins these states and takes home all of the same states that Hillary was able to win, it’s over for the current president. The Minnesota wrinkle is an intriguing one. This is a state that voted for Hillary during the 2016 election and most political analysts assumed that it would not be up for grabs this time.
Trump almost won back then, coming within a point and a half of snagging Minnesota. This development shouldn’t be as surprising as it is but when the state that lead the “defund the police” charge is polling this way? It’s a bit shocking. There is also a growing belief that Trump voters are reticent about being counted by the polling places.
This is the same belief that sprung up in the wake of the 2016 election, where Trump won with ease despite all of the early scuttlebutt in Hillary’s favor. The real concern for Trump’s campaign is associated with the state of Arizona. This is a state that normally polls red but they may flip to blue this year. Can Trump hang onto Arizona and make sure that Minnesota goes red, too?
It’s a question that is well worth asking. Minnesota is a state that is going to have far more importance in this election than anyone could have ever realized. Morning Consult is monitoring this state very closely and Trafalgar is also on board. Those who paid close attention to the 2016 election probably remember the crucial role that Trafalgar played.
They were the ones who tipped the world off about Trump’s impending surge in the Rust Belt. Those polls have him within striking distance of Biden as well. The most recent Fox News poll has Biden waltzing to victory in Minnesota but no one is placing any heavy bets at the moment. Robert Cahaly is the pollster from Trafalgar who believes in the idea of the “shy” Trump voter.
When he is polling certain areas, he will ask the people he’s speaking with to tell him who they think their neighbors are voting for. This is his way of drawing out the voters that are more uncertain. In his mind, there are plenty of people who are going to vote for Trump but they are not willing to admit that to the folks that run polls.
Many pollsters have Biden winning in a landslide in many of the swing states but Trump is still holding strong in Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin. This is impressive when you stop to consider the fact that everything is working against Trump at the moment. All he needs is a break or two to get back into the race in earnest.
Minnesota is a state that is experiencing an uptick in crime over the past few weeks and they have themselves to blame for it. The state must not be as leftist as they would have liked to think. For a candidate like Trump that is all about law and order, this is a pretty good sign. There is still plenty of time before the election and he’ll have his chances to turn the tide. Biden’s landslide may not happen after all.